Emini Forecast Blog

Sorry to be writing at the end of the day instead of last night, but the time just got away from me.  Hopefully this allowed some of you to work on the trading plan.  

Forecast out last night..  High of 880 / Low of 848.  We took out the high at 2:00, went short and picked up 30 points..  Now we have taken out the low, so look for a confirmation of the move back over 848 and go long..    For those of you happy with the 30 points you made today, you can either take the rest of the week off - or play the long.  If you play the long, protect those profits so we do not give back more than we took in..

Pretty amazing week last week..  We had a head fake late Tueday that may have gotten you in and out if you had a stop loss and did not wait for a confirm bar.  BTW - I ALWAYS use a stop loss.  To review a couple of ways you could have played it.  The forecasted high was 984 - we took out that high at the open on Tuesday.  Gaps always scare me - but we did take it out.  So we were looking to go short when we crossed below 984.   We did that on the next 5 minute bar.  This is where you have to be weary of days like this - did the market makers just try and shake out the longs and then ride them up?  We will never know - but what we do know from my plan is this:

1.  We had no follow through.  In other words the red bar crossed below 984 - but the next bar was green.  Stay out.. 

2. But - supposed you got in.  I am cool with that - but your stop should have been the high of the bar that took out 984..   That was about 996.  Remember the plan is solid so if it is not going are way we get to the side

3.  But then - you would have gotten back in miday on Wednesday.  Just compare that Wednesday chart to the Tuesday head fake..  Do you see that follow thru on the next bar?  This is your green light that if you are not short - GET SHORT..  And what happens - we drop 90 points..

On to this week.  Forecast is out..  High of 955; Low of 919.. The are forecasted some pretty strong volatility.  If and when we take out the high of 955 - look to go short; If and when we take out the low of 919 - look to go long.. 

Talk to you later in the week..

Gapped up over 984 forecasted high…  Look to go short when we close below 984.   Again - play with caution due to election un-easiness..

Not going to even suggest one way or the other anyone should vote - but I believe if you do not vote you cannot complain about anything over the next 4 years..

This also serves as another warning… Elections can really mess with the markets so lets be real careful out there..   Given the last 2 elections do not be surprised if the losing side files some lawsuit to try and win any way possible.  The markets really hate that…

Sorry for the late post - was travelling over the weekend.  8 minutes before market open so make this brief.  For you new visitors, just read some of the past weeks for how we do things..  Forecasted low for week 948; High is 984.  If, in the next couple days we take out low of 948 - look to go long.. We take out high of 984 -look to go short.  Right now pre-market is right in the middle of that range so we are just hanging out..

Per my Sunday evening post, we were looking for the high of 884 to be taken out..  We did that yesterday at 1:00 yesterday.  We then crossed below 884 at 2:30…  We then dropped almost 50 points..  I trailed it and took out 40…  I hope you got a piece of it.  I did not hold this position overnight because at this point greed must be kept in check..

This morning we gapped above the low of 848 (which we took out yestersday).  I did not cancel my buy order so I was filled at the open at 868.  Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.   I am already up 10 points and will trail closely because I am clearly in the bonus money..  

Have a great week - because if you followed the plan I laid out Sunday night - you are done!!

Forecast is out. So we are looking for a low of 848; High of 884.  When you take a minute and step back and look at the market - this is an incredible low level of the market.  GNP report is due out this week and I am not looking for it to spell total market collapse.  The real issue for your long term buyers out there is there are SO many good buys..   Some of these true quality companies have be dragged down so much - all it will take is a little rally to really explode the market up.. 

..  Remember we are looking at taking out the high or the low of the week - then playing the other side..    Check back for updates…

Love it when a plan comes together… You had 2 chances to make money. If you did like I told you I was going to do Sunday - and then again Monday - you would have shorted the market yesterday afternoon when the market dipped below 952 and would have made 38 points. I got out when the market turned back up at 10:45 EST… Sure I could have stayed in longer, but why risk it?

Or - if you placed your order a bit below 952 - then you would have gotten in at the open and could have made almost 20 points in a couple hours.

Regardless - forecast was right on (again) and we did not worry about the moving g line through the week, as some of you are still confused about. We took the setup Sunday evening - etched it in STONE and created our trading plan from there.

Easy.. Done… Enoy the rest of your week.

Ok - so now we took out the high… So we are looking to go short under 952.. Stay tuned.. I am think by Wednesday we will hit the pullback. As of now - we have nothing invested in this week so we are interested observers - which is better then nervous / guessing investors!!

Forecast is out. So we are looking for a low of 916; High of 952. Markets seem to be settling down a bit - so perhaps we can get back to some normalcy..  Remember we are looking at taking out the high or the low of the week - then playing the other side..    Check back for updates…