Emini Forecast Blog

Now the rest of the world is voting what they think of the bailout - and by the looks of the overnight markets they do not think much of it.  Look for a drop this morning at the open..  The only good news is the rest of the world FOLLOWS us - not leads our markets.  So after the emotional drop this morning - look for a pullout.  Also remember the fine folks in Washington are going to do what ever possible to turn this thing around.  The Republicans also know that this situation is killing McCain so they need a rally this week as well.

Another reason I like this system - my “hunch” was totally wrong last night.. Markets are not impressed with the bailouts so we are not going to take out the high this morning.. And how much did we lose?  ZERO…  We have now taken out the low for the wee (and more).. So now just chill out until we cross above the forecasted low of the week of 1196 and look to go long…

Forecast is out for the week..  Shows a low of 1196 and a high of 1232..  Here is how I think it will play out.  News over the weekend is there is a bail out proposal in the works - so look for the market to gap up in the morning and probably take out the forecasted high for the week of 1232.  When that happens play the pullback - looking to go short under 1232..

Things are never quite as bad as the seem - but I think it got close on Friday.. 

As for this week - we took out the low today on bailout news, but the bad news has now been delivered.  I am looking at going long in Tuesday..  I want some confirmation in the first 15 minutes that we take out the final couple bars from today - then going long with a couple of green bars.  If I get it before noon - I will look to pick up 20 points..

Man, when I said last night that I thought the market was going to go in the toilet today I never knew how right I was going to be.  Worst loss for the market since 9/11.

So where does that put us?  It puts us a long way away from our entry price of 1232.  Some of you had questions of whether we would’ve gotten back in at 1232 decided on the way back up — we would’ve never entered into a trade this morning.  Based on my trading plan we are to look for trade in the afternoon were also going to be afraid of any dead cat bounce which is what happened this morning.  Hopefully anyone else would’ve tried to get back into 1232 would have had an adequate stock in place to prevent further loss.  We would go from here?  All signs point to the market improving throughout the week is this with all the action that the Fed is taking I am still sitting with my buy add greater than 1232.  Obviously the market is going to have to recover substantially to get to this point but I still have hopes.  And I’m good to be looking for anywhere from a 10 to 20 point gain.  On markets such as this they can be a lot easier to sit on the sidelines however when the Fed gets involved and the president believes his legacy is tied to the economy I think you’re going to see a lot of unnatural acts in the market intending to drive it up.  Hopefully you all caught the massive drop in oil this afternoon.  I believe the market makers look at that as well and actually put a positive spin on that on freeing up funds in the economy.

Here is what I am looking for this week.  Check out the video here.  I mispoke  on the recording.  Tonight is the 14th.. Tomorrow is the 15th..

91408 Weekly Plan

Best way to explain this is to check out the quick video I made..  Much easier than typing!!

Click here to check it out:

 Week of 090809 

Hope this helps.

Today was a picture perfect day using the forecast.. But it was not a picture perfect day for me on the technical side.. I gave great direction for cleaning up today - I just hope you all found my post!

1st - yesterday I responded to a question (when the market was closed) on how to set up this week. To see it for yourself just click on the comments under my last post “sorry for the lag”.. For those of you who did not see it - here it is. I also left in the original spot so you could all see the time stamp of Labor Day:

“For example - today is Monday, Labor Day and markets are closed.. Forecast for the week just came out. Here is how I will play this: Forecasted low for the week = 1268 area; Forecasted high for the week = just below 1296. So we wait to see where market actually opens and moves on Tuesday - then get in. For example - lets say market opens near low of 1268 and drops through out the day. Well we have taken out the forecasted low for the week, so I am would set my buy for when market breaks above the 1268 area. I would expect to see the market 30 points higher “sometime” in the week. If we take out the high tomorrow of around 1296. I would then set my sell short to trigger when market dropped below this area..

On a short week, you may have to tighten your profit outlook because we only get 4 days… Example - when we take out a forecasted high or low on Monday - I look for the full 20+ points. As the week moves on and we have not hit the profit I will then close that up a bit..

Then - this morning before the market opened I created a new post. Actually - by mistake I created a new PAGE - so the blog created it off the main menu (to the right of the screen). If you have not been used to looking there you would have never noticed it… I wrote:

“Interesting when the US Markets are closed when the rest of the world is open. Premarket was up huge.. Looks like we might take out the weekly forecasted high today, so be prepared to go short”

Nailed it…

What did the market do? Market crossed over 1296.. I set my short order to go short when market crossed below 1296… Market did just that and fell like a prom dress on prom night to 1273.. That would by my 20 points I was looking for in 5 hours… Cashed out and done for the week.

I hope you all caught the same thing and were able to read (find) my post ahead of time. I will try and me more careful in the future so you can find my set ups with out looking for them. Heck - I have the rest of the week to go read a book on blogging since I am hanging out until next week..

Had a tragedy in the family which has kept me from the computer. A drunk driver killed my cousins 17 year old daughter.. Since this blog is about financial I will not post my comments on that situation here..

BTW - I did make money last week, but screwing up. I bought on the way up Friday. It then pulled back, but due to the tragedy I carried over the weekend and early this week ( a no-no) but market was rallying so stayed in and won… But I am not counting that as a win since I broke my own rules..

Market dropped pretty hard at the open - gapping down… Never try to catch a falling knife. So I am placing a buy order just above the gap of this mornings open. For those of you who follow technical analysis know a large percent of the time the market will fill the gap.

Also - a great place to answer some of your questions about the moving yellow / G line. On the forecast screen (live) you will not the yellow line has dropped to the market low - which is several points from where it was on Sunday.. Grab it with your mouse and MOVE it BACK. You will note when you do that the yellow line is right above the gap where I am looking to enter.. So instead of filling at the top of the gap - you can also put a buy order in when it crosses back over the original yellow line from the Sunday forecast..